Product Selection

Since I haven't worked on a product before, I went ahead to decide on a product to work on among the following 3:

• QuitSure
• cult.fit
• BluSmart

QuitSure

The company has found PMF considering the fact that over 50,000 people successfully used the app to quit smoking in 2022 itself. The company, founded in 2020, is now attempting to start scaling, eyeing over a million users. This puts the company at an early scaling stage.

References:

https://www.cnbctv18.com/healthcare/more-than-50000-smokers-have-embraced-smoke-free-life-in-2022-with-quitsure-15596141.htm

https://www.thehindu.com/business/anti-smoking-app-quitsure-aids-60000-people-to-go-smoke-free-eyes-1-million-users/article67012223.ece

cult.fit

A well-known name among the masses, cult.fit has found its PMF with over 100,000 active users spread across 230 locations in India. The scale demonstrates that cult has not only found its PMF but has also established multiple scalable channels for customer acquisition, putting the company at matured stage scaling stage.

References:

https://business.cult.fit/franchise/cult#:~:text=Largest%20fitness%20chain%20in%20India,than%201%20lac%20active%20members.

BluSmart

With "Ola-Uber" becoming slang for cab service, BluSmart's foray into the space was challenging. However, with its unique propositions of no cancellations and no surge pricing (being revisited now) and an all-electric fleet, it has found its PMF with over 2.4 million app downloads and a 5,000-car strong fleet. This puts the company right at the cusp of exiting early-stage scaling towards matured-stage scaling.

Reference:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/technology/ev-firm-blusmart-crosses-annual-revenue-run-rate-of-rs-400-crore/articleshow/103382922.cms?from=mdr

All three products qualify for the project and have at least 5 users of each in my circle. However, the health and wellness space garners my most interest. As such, I decided to move ahead with QuitSure.

The Product

Problem Statement

Habits are difficult to break. There is a reason for that - it has become part of your life and is deeply ingrained in you. At times it is clear that a habit is not beneficial or even harmful yet there is a losing fight to change that habit. Smoking/tobacco consumption is one such habit. It is deeply ingrained in the lifestyle of an individual that doing a small task of going for a walk outside to a regular meeting acts as a trigger for consumption. These triggers are constant reminders that subconsciously enable actions of tobacco consumption and people don't have to think about it.

While scores of people try to quit smoking, only a select few are able to quit and subsequently not relapse as well. As per the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, USA, about two-thirds of youth tobacco users wanted to quit however less than a tenth of them have been successful. This highlights the prevailing problem of the inability to quit tobacco despite intent and effort.

While it is easy to talk about willpower, changes in lifestyle or going for alternates like gums, the real problem lies in the difficulty in imbibing a behavioral change in self. Further, there are significant issues of tobacco withdrawal symptoms which further puts doubts in the minds of the tobacco consumers. This exacerbates the already seemingly impossible task of cessation.

Various rehabilitation centers support tobacco cessation. However, there is one significant difference in that approach. The centers are not part of daily lifestyle. As such, the success rate as per various studies revolves around the 30-50% mark with a significant proportion of people relapsing within a year. It can be assumed that the environment has a defining impact on an individual and while it may feel like success in a controlled environment, the real world works differently with land mines at every step.

References:

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/44/Suppl_58/P4456?utm_source=TrendMD&utm_medium=cpc&utm_campaign=European_Respiratory_Journal_TrendMD_0

https://erj.ersjournals.com/content/48/suppl_60/PA4599

The Solution

Nobody cares what your product does. They do if you can help.

The key here is to have a product that not only suppresses the urge to consume tobacco but ensures the very thought of its consumption is repulsive. This accompanied by addressing the withdrawal symptoms would provide a fighting chance towards tobacco cessation.

The solution thus devised requires 3 key components:

1. Psychological Habit Change (Including addressing the withdrawal symptoms)
2. Personalization to Individual's Triggers
3. Ease to follow in daily life

The Product

https://www.quitsure.app/

The product by QuitSure is a mobile app-enabled program that builds upon behavioral science and psychological tools to design a personalized program to help quit smoking and other forms of tobacco consumption.

The program is designed to devote 10 hours over 6 to 10 days with daily text/video-based sessions. The program is claimed to inculcate psychological habit change while focusing on an individual's triggers. It does not require an abrupt cessation of tobacco but quite the opposite. The users are required to smoke during the program and use various techniques while smoking to get the desired behavior change.

The starting screen of the app greets users with a motivational quote, about the success rate of past users. It further attempts to build trust by attributing the design of the program to those who have gone through the cessation journey themselves. Finally, it clearly talks about the main pain points of a user:

• Cravings
• Weight gain
• Lifestyle changes
• Will-power

This is followed by a self-affirming call to action "I WANT TO BE FREE".

The user onboarding for a product that promises personalization requires many data points which act as friction. The onboarding form has been divided into 7 sections focusing on:

• Basic information about the user -
• • Name
  • Gender
  • Age
• Smoking Behavior -
• • Form of nicotine consumption - Cigarettes/Vapes/Chewing Tobacco
  • Age when started smoking
  • Number of cigarettes per day/week
  • If someone has already quit it
  • Cost of consumption (cost per cigarette etc)
  • At this stage, the potential savings from cessation are displayed with yet another CTA "SAVE MY MONEY"
  • Next, the app assures the user about how difficult/easy will it break unhealthy thought patterns. This is accompanied by a total of users who had the same pattern and were yet successful in an attempt to eliminate doubts and instill confidence. Further, there are testimonials with yet another CTA of "FEELING GOOD ABOUT THIS"
• Current State of Affairs
• • Which smoking-related health issues are currently being faced
  • This is followed by a short note addressing the issues selected and the potential time frame of remission along with CTA "THANK GOODNESS!".
  • Stage in the quit-smoking journey to gauge the motivation.
  • Followed by another note affirming/assuring the user with various CTAs as per response.
  • Request to connect on WhatsApp for content delivery and enhanced engagement.
  • The key drivers are identified by asking what quitting smoking means to the user.
  • Next is an image updating the progress and to believe in the rest of the journey along with a CTA "I BELIEVE"
• Quitting History
• • Number of past quitting attempts
• Thought Patterns
• • Understand the feeling of smoking/vaping/chewing with options like tastes good/relieves stress etc.
  • Understand the concern post-quitting
  • Yet another note with success rate and CTA "THIS SOUNDS EASY."
• Program Setup
• • Details out the time commitment needed and provides options in a conversational manner instead of yes/no/maybe.
• Select the program format in either video or text.

Once the onboarding is completed, the user is immediately pressed to purchase the subscription by providing a 50% discount valid for the next 20 minutes.

The program offered focuses on mindful smoking which is described by many as similar to meditation. The users have to focus on specific sensations while smoking as part of the exercises. This is accompanied by a smoking tracker and a journal to keep track of progress.

The daily instructions are provided as a user progresses in the program. The user further has the option to connect with a coach where one can post queries about their ongoing experience.

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Key Insights

The onboarding process can be cumbersome in cases of personalization due to the sheer number of data points that are to be gathered. This is made easy by splitting the questions to be asked into multiple sections. Further, there is constant interaction with the user in terms of short notes after every few questions and various CTAs designed to make the user feel better about themselves.

The language of the program makes sure that users always talk to themselves instead of acknowledging someone's instructions. This gives a certain sense of comfort and control as well as builds confidence as confirmed by all the users. This is not felt while onboarding or completing the program but is something they all realized in hindsight.

Further, the users believe that the program challenged the assumptions and the excuses that they have been giving to themselves in order to continue smoking. Assumptions like the development of distance in friendship or attribution of mental cognition level to smoking were challenged. This allowed them to get past their own psychological barriers.

There is a certain lack of consistency in the language. While the app and the website talk extensively about smoking, the onboarding form talks about nicotine consumption including cigarettes, vapes and chewing tobacco.

The product is designed to not have repeat users as that defeats their core value proposition. However, in cases of relapse, although the program can be referred to, users mentioned that it would be difficult to succeed the second time since they now understand how the program worked. As such, it becomes crucial that there is a definite success. However, those who attempted it for the second time were successful as well with the only exception that they took slightly more time.

The pricing is kept as follows:

• Rs. 1,918 per month (Rs. 959 for the first 20 minutes after onboarding) for an English text-based program
• Rs. 4,798 per month (Rs. 2,399 for the first 20 minutes) for English video-based program
• Rs. 4,796 per month (Rs. 1,199 for the first 20 minutes) for a German video-based program
• Rs. 4,796 per month (Rs. 1,199 for the first 20 minutes) for Hindi video-based program

There is an assurance given that only 1 month is needed along with FAQs about subscription and cancellation

What's interesting here is the differential discounting done with steeper discounts for German and Hindi content. This demonstrates the acquisition focus of the company.

There is a high willingness to pay for most users. This was understood based on the interviews of various past/current users of the app as well as people who are looking to quit. The universal reason attributed to their willingness to pay is the cost of the program compared with their weekly expense on cigarettes or other products.

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The Users

ICPs

Based on interviews with 7 users of QuitSure and 5 other smokers, the following 5 ICPs were identified.

ICP Prioritization Framework

Prioritization Rationalization:

Based on the above framework, prioritizing ease of adoption, appetite to pay and low CAC, 3 ICPs have been identified. The following reasons are a common contributing factor to all 3 while additional individual reasons are mentioned immediately after.

• Common Reasons
• • The price point is low enough for users to give it a try.
  • All 3 ICPs have a high appetite to pay for this product.
  • Any advertisements related to health claims are heavily moderated and discouraged by most digital platforms. This can raise the CAC substantially. However, since these 3 ICPs are searching for solutions, it allows for a lower CAC.
  • They cannot take a break from regular life to go to long rehabilitation camps, so are looking for an easy-to-use solution.
  • They are all looking for reliable solutions because withdrawal symptoms with multiple relapses have developed anxiety.
  • Assumption - They can provide a lot of referrals as this is a commonly discussed topic among those looking to quit.
• ICP-3: Mid-Career Professionals
• • Their main trigger comes from the realization of health deterioration. The value proposition is clear in that sense as well as in terms of money saved.
  • They no longer have pressure to engage in smoking as a part of the social circle, this eliminates smoking triggers as well as provides a support group in many cases.
• ICP-4: Parents
• • The responsibility of attending to kids acts as a trigger to increase smoking for pleasure. This has led to an increase in cigarette consumption for some.
  • For some, the responsibility of kids is a trigger to quit smoking.
  • In both cases, the motivation and reward to quit are high as well as the appetite to spend on this product to allow for more savings.
• ICP-5: Senior Executives
• • Having smoked for a major portion of their lives, they face multiple health-related issues.
  • Frequent advice from doctors to quit acts as another motivator.

How can QuitSure help them quit smoking?

• The price point is low enough that it does not act as a barrier to adoption.
• The program is delivered via the app over a duration of 6 to 12 days with a 30-45 minute commitment expected every day. This allows for ease of adoption.
• The high success rate of 95% with glorifying reviews from past users on the internet generates a level of trust.
• The program does not require lifestyle changes or abrupt disruptions which can cause anxiety. Further, the absence of withdrawal symptoms in most users allows for long-lasting success.
• Among the 7 users interviewed, the 2 people who had to use the app for the second time due to relapse were because they didn't follow the process. Further, anyone in their circle who had used the app had the same experience, assuring the claimed 95% success rate.

The Market

Google Search

The number of people actively looking to quit smoking are huge with studies indicating as much as two-thirds of smokers have thought of quitting. As such, Google search history becomes a leading indicator of the user psyche - what are they thinking and looking for.

Various relevant search results were as follows:

• Search: quitsure
• • Results: The very first result is the link to the QuitSure website followed by certain questions about the app under "People also ask" all of which talk favorably about QuitSure.
  • This is followed by app links to the Play Store and App Store with ratings of 4.4 and 4.7 respectively.
  • Once the product-related links are over, it links to a study that discusses the effectiveness of the app with great results observed.
  • This is followed by other product media articles glorifying the app
  • Contra links: Some links to online pharmacies that offer nicotine tablets with the same name.
• Search: quit smoking/ how to stop smoking immediately/ can you quit smoking
• • The results feature various articles from online clinics like the Mayo Clinic, WebMD, etc which give tips on quitting. These range from trying to understand your reason and work on it to nicotine patches and rehab centers. Various helplines are provided as well. However, there are no product links to QuitSure or any other app or even substitutes.
• does quitsure works
• • Links to various app reviews and answers on various forums which are mainly affirming the high success rate.

Keyword Searches

• Keyword: quitsure
• • Match: broad match
  • Geography:
  • • India: Average of 480/month
    • USA: Average of 170/month and an additional 190/month for related keywords
• Keyword: quit smoking
• • Match: broad match
  • Geography:
  • • India: Average of 18,100/month and over 15,000/month of next 9 closely related search keywords.
    • USA: Average of 14,800/month and over 30,000/month of next 9 closely related search keywords including "how to quit smoking", and "quitting smoking".

YouTube

• The search for QuitSure yielded videos mostly put out by the company itself with only a few hundred views on each. These videos are mostly testimonials with none to a few likes. The notable exception video is the QuitSure intro video which had garnered over 100,000 views.\
• The search for "quit smoking" resulted in videos from prominent media outlets, medical establishments as well as doctors. Each of them has over 100,000 views with some receiving over a million views. Each video has a few tens of thousands of likes as well, indicating a huge popularity among people trying to quit. The comments on each are filled with people's successful/failed attempts using the same tips.

Articles

• Quora
• • Quora is full of questions asking about the effectiveness of the QuitSure app. Answers almost exclusively talk about the success journey of the authors and recommend others to use it.
• Medium
• • A couple of articles talk about QuitSure in a list of recommended apps to quit smoking. The ranking however is lower than its competitors.
  • Other articles about the QuitSure app itself talk positively about the app, the experience, and its success.
  • There are many news articles that mention the success of QuitSure and the path the company is taking forward. These seem to be PR articles but nonetheless, they have a positive effect with wide coverage.

Product Listings and Reviews

The app is not listed on the product hunt. It does have a few competitor apps listed however, they have not garnered many followers or ratings.

G2 doesn't fetch any result as well for quitsure.

The app is well-received on the Play Store and App Store. It has a 4.4 rating from 6.56 thousand reviews and over a million downloads on Play Store. On App Store, it has an even more impressive rating of 4.7 from 534 reviews.

Competition

QuitNow and Kwit-quit are 2 formidable competitors with similar numbers of downloads and ratings. While downloads and ratings are the same, the number of users who have rated their apps is much larger - 2x to 10x.

TAM/SAM/SOM

An estimated 1.3 billion adults smoke cigarettes globally. As per the CDC, 68% of adult smokers in the USA wanted to quit. extrapolating this number globally, this gives a total of 884 million adults looking to quit smoking. An article from WHO established this number at 780 million. As such, it is safe to assume that 750 million people are looking to quit smoking with the number of smokers on the rise every year.

This gives a total of 750 million potential customers with an average ticket size of $15 making the TAM $11.25 Billion.

Considering the cost of the program and the cost of smoking, the price point is not assumed as a barrier to adoption. Roughly 65% of the global population uses the internet. If it is assumed that smokers are spending enough on their cigarettes to allow for the purchase of programs and 65% of them have internet access, SOM is $7.31 Billion.

programs

The app is live globally and has customers from 75+ countries and is available in 3 languages English, Hindi, and German. Together roughly 30% of the global population understands these languages. With the coverage of the internet, language constraints, and 25% of market capture, the SOM has conservatively arrived at over half a billion dollars.

References:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/35241576

https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tobacco

https://www.who.int/news/item/08-12-2020-who-launches-year-long-campaign-to-help-100-million-people-quit-tobacco

Distribution Channels

SureQuit has identified its PMF and has a significant and growing user base. As such, the focus is now on expansion via various channels and offerings.

Based on market research as well as the ICPs, certain gaps, as well as opportunities, were identified in Organic, Content Loop, and Partnerships. Further, there are major restrictions when it comes to advertising for health-related products and programs that discourage the use of digital platforms for advertisements. As such, the focus on expansion has to be via unpaid channels, partnerships, and integrations compounded by referrals.

This is justified considering our ICPs where the people are actively looking for our product as well as spending considerable time on the internet and content platforms.

Organic

The domain authority of QuitSure is terrible with a score of only 22 when discovered on moz. While some of it can be attributed to keyword difficulty related to smoking as discovered on Semrush, however a score as low as 22 indicates huge scope for SEO optimization. Further, the domain authority of other websites with the same keywords has higher authority as well as visibility.

This leaves a huge scope for improvement.

The DA had improved slightly a year ago however, it has remained the same ever since.

The linking domains have increased over time however they are still at a low count of 91.

The competitor QuitNow has a higher domain authority of 39 and kwit has a domain authority of 50. However, this is still not enough since the clinics and government bodies have a higher domain authority which means that when someone searches for phrases like "quit smoking", the link to the app is rarely seen in the top search results.

Taking a look at the top keywords in the domain, clearly indicates that while the keyword strategy is focusing on less difficult keywords to optimize for SEO, it is missing out on some of the top searches.

As such, there is an urgent need to fix meta descriptions as well as improve linking to the domain.

Content Loops

The Blogs/Articles and Instagram content loops will be prioritized. This is considering the following factors:

• Blogs/Articles: Since the target customers are already looking for solutions, it is best to fulfill their appetite and provide relevant answers. This also gains priority since advertisements are not easily possible.
• Instagram: The rapid content consumption and sheer time spent on the platform makes it a top choice. The presence of both pictures and videos as mediums allows for deep content penetration. Further, the built-in messaging service allows users/viewers to share the content with a suitable audience in case of 1-to-1 communication.

Content Loop Details:

• Blogs/Articles
• • Content Creator: QuitSure's in-house team

The company has concluded in-depth research and has a deep knowledge base that can be leveraged. The in-house experts along with the creative writers can publish content that would be relevant as well as appealing.

• • Content Distributor: QuitSure

The content can be hosted on the website under various sections like FAQs, blogs, research, etc. Further, this has to be augmented with a digital presence on QnA platforms like Qurora as well as on popular content platforms like Medium

• • Channel: Google SEO and Users

Once optimized for SEO, the content will be available on Google searches. Further, the users can share these as well in their circle or with an individual who is looking for relevant answers or even to quit smoking.

• Instagram
• • Content Creator: QuitSure's in-house team/Users

The context for QuitSure's in-house team is the same as for Blogs/Articles.

While smoking as a topic is not actively discussed, cessation of smoking is widely discussed. The users described that once the news of their cessation spread, everyone wanted to talk about it and understand how they did it. This gave them a sense of pride. If this can be built upon by nudging users to share content by providing templates they can use, it can act as a great channel.

• • Content Distributor: Instagram/Viewers

The content would be published and distributed by Instagram. If it strikes a chord with the viewers, it would be shared by them as well through various means - posts, stories, and messages.

• • Distribution Channel: Instagram/Messengers

The content would be shared either on Instagram via posts, stories, or messages or it would be shared externally via messengers like WhatsApp.

Partnerships

Successful partnerships are built on the addition of value for users as well as the mutual success of the partners.

The prioritized ICPs have realized health issues and are actively looking to improve their health. This means they have regular interactions with healthcare providers of various types. The following 5 are the common touch points for any individual:

1. Hospitals
2. Clinics
3. Pharmacies
4. Diagnostic Providers
5. Insurance Providers

At both hospitals and clinics, the user gets in contact with either the doctor or the administrative staff at reception. However, the key difference here is that hospitals do not permit doctors to endorse outside products. Clinics are generally owned and operated by an individual or group of doctors and they do not have any such restrictions placed on them.

Insurance providers are rarely interacted with by the users. This doesn't diminish their importance since insurance providers have one of the highest rewards for their customers to quit smoking. In this direction, the ongoing partnership with Digit Insurance and platforms like Vantage Fit adds value and already has experimentation in process.

Next are diagnostic providers and pharmacies. These are the points a user generally reaches after a certain prescription from the doctor.

For the next leg of growth, partnership experiments can be carried out with either the clinic or pharmacies on a sign-up-based commission model. The rationale for the same is:

• While hospitals offer a scale of operations and wide visibility, people frequent more to doctor's clinics than hospitals. Thus, while the footfall at a clinic might be less, the frequency of each user is high. Why is this important? Every time a user visits the clinic again, there can be information provided on how many people who visited the clinic have quit smoking. This is feasible since the duration of the program is low.
• For the pharmacies, the same is true as well. People still frequent their local pharmacies while some adoption for digital pharmacies also exists.

Model:

• Assets:
• • A/B test with the following:
  • • A 7" digital display connected to the internet.
    • • Unit cost of Rs. 5,000
  • Pamphlets
  • Staff
  • • Would require basic training
• Incentives:
• • A/B test the following 2 incentive models:
  • • Offering the place a monthly amount of Rs. 5,000 to place our display at a prominent location. This is possible at clinics as well as pharmacies.
    • Offering a commission of Rs. 500 per sign-up via the custom sign-up link/QR.
• Projection:
• • The sign-ups would depend on the footfall of a location as well as the motivation of the owner. However, assuming that 50% of adults are smokers and 50% of them are looking to quit, we are looking at a number of 7-15 potential customers per day from a small pharmacy/clinic.